Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419e099e3be4b4f485984febf4f3b3aa33ea2b20174cdc91526d830f7b850c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 57c | 490.08$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.01 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 488.75$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 40c | 481.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.27 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 353.64$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 334$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 328.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 42c | 310$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 48c | 309.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 288.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 228.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 40c | 216.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 208.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 45c | 187.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 62c | 161.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 40c | 146.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 144.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 134.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 43c | 123.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 102.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 99.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 90.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 87.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 40c | 86.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 67.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 50c | 67.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 64.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9a70backed Yes | 54c | 64.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 40c | 62.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 61.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 61.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 58.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 56.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 56.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 52c | 54.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 39c | 46.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 59c | 45.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 44.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 24c | 43.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 63c | 41.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 55c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 37.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 57c | 35.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 57c | 32.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 31.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 59c | 30.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 47c | 27.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 24.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 24.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 54c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 22.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 22.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…427bbacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…42a8backed Yes | 69c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 64c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 17.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.