Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f98620c3bfa0551eba451edee3ac79477655470749ff6e46edf91937dfa931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,149$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.83 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,109$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 499.6$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 40c | 357.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 353.62$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 59c | 338.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 70c | 285.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 57c | 276.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.69 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 222.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 205.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 201$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 197$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 182.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 43c | 166.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 149.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 140.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 131.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 61c | 123.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 119.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 45c | 114.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 16c | 113.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 112.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 105.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 96.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…1ddfbacked No | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 34c | 88.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 37c | 73.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 58.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 50.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…d01bbacked Yes | 43c | 44.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 59c | 41.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked No | 71c | 36.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 32.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 35c | 32.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 31.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 30.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 60c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 23.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 60c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…d31dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2f…b741backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.