Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ab90aab842725fe998e6668597d10589cca90e75d5bafb172505d20348f0e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 31c | 1,006$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 173 | 25.4%44 W · 129 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 26c | 616.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.95 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 419.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 292.32$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.71 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 231$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 222.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…02d1backed Yes | 72c | 207.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 175.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.51 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 49c | 161.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 40c | 151.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 412 | 51.7%213 W · 199 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 56c | 142.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 136.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 124.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 106.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 788 | 36.5%288 W · 500 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 102.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 94.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 71c | 82.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 741 | 22.9%170 W · 571 L | -32.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 81.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed Yes | 68c | 80.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 28c | 74.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 74.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 981 | 57%559 W · 422 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 31c | 71.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 62c | 61.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 127 | 84.3%107 W · 20 L | +24.0wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 58.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 24c | 54.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 312 | 12.5%39 W · 273 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 54.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 53.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 499 | 48.3%241 W · 258 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 51.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 53c | 49.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 619 | 29.4%182 W · 437 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 642 | 76.6%492 W · 150 L | +98.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 321 | 68.2%219 W · 102 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 35.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 163 | 63.2%103 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 31c | 32.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 25.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 477 | 62.7%299 W · 178 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 331 | 68%225 W · 106 L | +16.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 21.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 437 | 51%223 W · 214 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 74c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…43e1backed Yes | 74c | 15.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 411 | 51.3%211 W · 200 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.