Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99852dbbb1955a6a7f92fd7047840c0840c198e21fb1dcf488c734a5cbee7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 803.89$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 44c | 709.27$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 70c | 681.32$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 345.01$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 14c | 306.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 34c | 278.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 13c | 265.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.01 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 259.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 41c | 198.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 58c | 153.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 50c | 144.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 138.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 51c | 133.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 126.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 43c | 116.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 108.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 50c | 103.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 49c | 101.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 54c | 96.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 94.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 49c | 91.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 89.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 50c | 84.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 81.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 57c | 80.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 41c | 78.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 62c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 60.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 40c | 58.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 55c | 52.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 55c | 51.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 27c | 47.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 63c | 38.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 37.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed Yes | 53c | 34.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 61c | 32.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 30.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 29.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 47c | 25.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.