NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f4a6700b4ae7a3c9918b1c77c4874176287b22f8a67d7c472cf8ff0b65e686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 47c | 131,184$61,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,594.23 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 53c | 88,688$47,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,683.47 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 11,405$6,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,326.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.99 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 53c | 5,111$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.97 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Over | 46c | 1,935$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.1 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 45c | 1,218$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.98 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 46c | 1,075$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 301 | 57.1%172 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 983.6$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 832$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 495.37$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.82 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…6c61backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 120.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 44c | 90.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…6f35backed Under | 54c | 87.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 54c | 80.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…205bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…dbcabacked Over | 46c | 33.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d41…e399backed Under | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5this page
- Bulls vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.