NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f378bb9ba294459149068069b03e8ce8cc6daa2ad9b28993d73a13603457d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Bulls | 53c | 10,668$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.3 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…88b4backed Bulls | 51c | 10,550$5,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,340.94 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 52c | 7,760$4,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,745.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 52c | 5,963$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Bulls | 45c | 5,555$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.75 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bulls | 48c | 5,145$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.05 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons | 49c | 4,183$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.84 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons | 51c | 3,046$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.42 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Pistons | 47c | 2,822$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.02 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 47c | 2,301$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.63 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Bulls | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Bulls | 54c | 1,850$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bulls | 51c | 1,706$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.89 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pistons | 45c | 1,175$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.38 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pistons | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pistons | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 49c | 969$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.19 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Bulls | 48c | 800$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons | 49c | 714$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Pistons | 49c | 692$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.76 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Pistons | 51c | 611.76$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.76 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 47c | 498.95$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pistons | 48c | 457$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.64 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Pistons | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Pistons | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Bulls | 54c | 371$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Pistons | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pistons | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Pistons | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Pistons | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Bulls | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Bulls | 54c | 173.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…d187backed Pistons | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pistons | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Pistons | 55c | 123$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Pistons | 49c | 109$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 49c | 106.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Pistons | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…fedcbacked Bulls | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Pistons | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Pistons | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Pistons | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Bulls | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Pistons | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Bulls | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Pistons | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pistons | 50c | 56.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls | 54c | 47.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Bulls | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Bulls | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Bulls | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Bulls | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Bulls | 51c | 39.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pistons | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Pistons | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pistons | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Bulls | 48c | 35.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Pistons | 50c | 33.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Pistons | 48c | 31.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Pistons | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Pistons | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Pistons | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pistons | 47c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…dea6backed Pistons | 46c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Pistons | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Pistons | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Pistons | 54c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Pistons | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)this page
- Bulls vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.