Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x421e4303a3d4915f0ee11d6b95425a1391c693a9960f2e95b7140ca1c206e046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 37c | 4,497$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.22 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 1,873$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.41 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Under | 68c | 1,171$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.44 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Over | 44c | 999.88$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 780.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 44c | 471.52$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.18 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 63c | 443.75$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.56 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 20c | 392.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 301.72$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 295.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 244.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 39c | 234$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 46c | 219.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 207.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 61c | 206.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 62c | 154.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 37c | 138$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 45c | 118.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…371bbacked Over | 60c | 83.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 68c | 72.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 37c | 67.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 62c | 53.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 62c | 47.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 53c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 79c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Over | 63c | 18.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 17.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.