Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a0dd90d6ab35bdf0d830a8033c66368f1a768f85b16d46287f03e2c298947c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 4,822$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 15c | 1,879$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.2 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 34c | 1,767$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.11 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 57c | 1,675$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.92 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 51c | 1,403$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.67 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Over | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Under | 33c | 909.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 67c | 775.1$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.78 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Under | 56c | 595.35$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 60c | 490$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 10c | 457.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 58c | 447.51$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.31 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 62c | 430.31$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.83 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Over | 51c | 400$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Under | 7c | 322.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 19c | 267.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 42c | 220.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 59c | 206.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 192.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 47c | 170.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 28c | 156.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 79c | 114.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 76c | 112.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 76c | 104.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 49c | 99.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 46c | 94.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 92.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 56c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 55c | 80.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 60c | 69.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Over | 77c | 61.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 47c | 42.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 37.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…6533backed Under | 51c | 31.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…53d3backed Over | 44c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 53c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 70c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 41c | 26.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 50c | 23.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dedfbacked Under | 56c | 21.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 65c | 21.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 0.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.