Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe663c18608f86b6e7aee2295d9577b1beca9880e8a0a891a0c4f6cf7764804cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 2,169$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.17 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 77c | 1,156$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.53 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…afc1backed Over | 70c | 1,095$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 9c | 574.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 66c | 399.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 34c | 399.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 229$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 42c | 128.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 126$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 31c | 124.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 22c | 96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 52c | 78.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 52c | 59.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 55c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce3…c36cbacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 26.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 62c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: Nashville SC O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.