NHL · resolved market
Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42284b2e1f8305f0ca03e01352ca0719e7cbb16599430cf3ba4c2517f36a1397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 64c | 4,814$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,057.97 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 63c | 1,764$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.32 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 38c | 1,523$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.04 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 1,439$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.82 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 39c | 1,051$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.27 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 1,020$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.79 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Under | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.99 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 991.07$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.33 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 37c | 967.67$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.63 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 37c | 899.98$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.99 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 61c | 766.38$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.49 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 37c | 638.61$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.32 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 634.44$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Over | 63c | 523.55$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 476.32$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 37c | 430.41$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.16 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 63c | 394.84$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 12c | 350$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Under | 39c | 328.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 52c | 325.11$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 37c | 273$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 227.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Over | 34c | 196$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 47c | 160$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 117$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 70c | 115.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 112$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 38c | 95.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 61c | 90.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 64c | 89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 47c | 74.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 38c | 73.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 71.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 40c | 68.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0afebacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 53c | 57.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 59c | 53.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 36c | 51.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…aeacbacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 34c | 46.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 63c | 43.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 58c | 37.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…4229backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 31.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 64c | 29.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…fbedbacked Over | 36c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 46c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Under | 40c | 25.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 63c | 17.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Predators vs. LightningLightning won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.