NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc63f9f0a4f3a69b7a41580093385661cfd064060b39cddbab3d044341dab47bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Predatorsof Lightning, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Lightning | 44c | 4,479$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.15 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Predators | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.8 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Predators | 60c | 1,392$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.6 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Predators | 56c | 1,365$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.6 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Predators | 59c | 1,056$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.06 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 41c | 1,010$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.1 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 43c | 889$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.36 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Predators | 58c | 835.84$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Predators | 58c | 795.66$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.18 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Lightning | 42c | 606.44$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.67 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Predators | 56c | 567.02$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.15 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Predators | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Lightning | 41c | 473$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 33c | 391.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Lightning | 42c | 366.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Predators | 53c | 325.22$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Lightning | 44c | 310.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Predators | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Predators | 57c | 299.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.27 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Predators | 71c | 278.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Predators | 57c | 263$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Predators | 58c | 230.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Predators | 76c | 225.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Predators | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning | 41c | 181.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 22c | 176.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Predators | 78c | 169.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Lightning | 41c | 168$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Lightning | 43c | 168$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 38c | 157.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 28c | 134.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Lightning | 42c | 124.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Predators | 63c | 119.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…c02dbacked Predators | 57c | 118.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Lightning | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Predators | 66c | 99.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Predators | 75c | 94.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 46c | 80.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Predators | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Lightning | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Lightning | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Lightning | 54c | 60.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Lightning | 43c | 48.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Predators | 58c | 47.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 45c | 46.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Lightning | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Lightning | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Lightning | 25c | 41.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Lightning | 41c | 40.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…a603backed Predators | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Lightning | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lightning | 42c | 31.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Predators | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Predators | 64c | 28.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Lightning | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Predators | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Predators | 57c | 23.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Predators | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Predators | 57c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lightning | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Predators | 58c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Predators vs. LightningLightning won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.