NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4239018d246eec5f4fd980f029fd975b9925e907618c50088cd7f9bdcf56fb78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 12,844$6,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,701.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Over | 52c | 9,941$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -10.1wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 3,802$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.06 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bebdbacked Over | 52c | 3,654$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 3,509$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 2,308$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.31 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 51c | 2,308$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.01 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 2,249$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.71 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 1,584$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.84 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Over | 52c | 1,110$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.2 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 47c | 799.96$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.18 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 50c | 590.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.58 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 52c | 471.72$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 50c | 403$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Over | 54c | 363.54$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.31 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 305$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…5160backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 229.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 208$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 56c | 183.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 157.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 131.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…920fbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Under | 78c | 32.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Under | 78c | 31.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 49c | 25.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-0.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BullsBulls won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.