NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8909a1264f5aebb6428ec1b63fef28726e66eca7f92cc4304783725bfbecbfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Celtics, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Celtics | 46c | 22,528$10,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,375.5 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Bulls | 56c | 16,749$9,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,369.68 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Celtics | 44c | 11,000$4,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,840 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Bulls | 55c | 7,062$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.93 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Bulls | 56c | 3,600$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls | 53c | 3,449$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.03 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Bulls | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bulls | 51c | 1,551$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.25 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Celtics | 46c | 1,310$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.83 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Celtics | 44c | 1,212$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.28 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 53c | 976.11$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Bulls | 55c | 946.22$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.8 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 54c | 939.59$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bulls | 54c | 933$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.18 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 48c | 914.68$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Bulls | 49c | 613.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.53 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls | 52c | 600$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bulls | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Celtics | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Bulls | 53c | 497.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 47c | 388.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 54c | 361$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Celtics | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 66c | 303.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Bulls | 66c | 301.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Bulls | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 56c | 154.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Bulls | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 55c | 142.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 45c | 113.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Bulls | 47c | 113$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Celtics | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 55c | 110.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…7b83backed Bulls | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls | 51c | 92.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Bulls | 55c | 66.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 243 | 63.8%155 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Celtics | 45c | 66.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Celtics | 44c | 65.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Bulls | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Celtics | 58c | 59.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…fc6ebacked Bulls | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Bulls | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Bulls | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Bulls | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bulls | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Celtics | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bulls | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Bulls | 55c | 36.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Bulls | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Celtics | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80f…4fa0backed Bulls | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Celtics | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Celtics | 45c | 22.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-0.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BullsBulls won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.