NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3007ae063ab0fcca0f76b17b431e150f985cf71586da63d2cf32db03494da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Celtics, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Celtics | 57c | 23,313$13,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,279.13 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 47c | 17,792$8,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,433.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Celtics | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 43c | 4,649$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 43c | 4,422$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 47c | 3,992$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Celtics | 58c | 3,962$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.96 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics | 53c | 3,954$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.5 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bulls | 45c | 3,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls | 46c | 2,820$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.99 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Celtics | 53c | 2,785$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.15 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Bulls | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Bulls | 55c | 1,910$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.68 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Celtics | 51c | 1,863$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Celtics | 51c | 1,823$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.68 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls | 49c | 1,460$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.02 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls | 45c | 1,200$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 47c | 894.93$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.38 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls | 43c | 890$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Celtics | 47c | 867.95$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.94 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bulls | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bulls | 44c | 780$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bulls | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Bulls | 42c | 544.77$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.81 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Celtics | 57c | 536$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.52 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Bulls | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Celtics | 46c | 433.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Celtics | 47c | 265.37$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Bulls | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls | 53c | 237.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Bulls | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Bulls | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls | 48c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Bulls | 46c | 191.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bulls | 44c | 158.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bulls | 41c | 139.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 48c | 110.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Bulls | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3e52backed Bulls | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…e2d7backed Celtics | 58c | 85.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…00bdbacked Celtics | 57c | 77.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Celtics | 56c | 67.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Celtics | 52c | 63.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…0a7abacked Bulls | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 183 | 54.1%99 W · 84 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Celtics | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…1bfabacked Celtics | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Celtics | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…ab6bbacked Celtics | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Bulls | 51c | 36.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Celtics | 52c | 35.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Bulls | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…44b3backed Celtics | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Bulls | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…1bc7backed Celtics | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Bulls | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Celtics | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-0.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BullsBulls won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.