NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894cd8831e9c5c5169208c44ff72347785b8824e1c60b5b45485269d6eedaf8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Over | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,671$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.97 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 2,182$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 52c | 2,172$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.41 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 51c | 2,031$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.99 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 2,008$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 1,721$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.08 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 1,567$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.03 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 51c | 1,566$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.66 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 49c | 1,565$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.09 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 1,529$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.64 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 531.28$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 505$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 46c | 490$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 275.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 46c | 253$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 48c | 240.66$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 47c | 233.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 49c | 119.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 100.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Under | 53c | 99.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 51c | 97.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 79.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 48c | 77.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 52c | 60.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 48c | 55.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 53c | 42.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 49c | 30.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 52c | 30.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 44c | 29.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…e2fdbacked Over | 45c | 28.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 26.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 48c | 23.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-0.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BullsBulls won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.