TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bebopof Bebop, Oxuji Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,623 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b97…8d30backed Oxuji Esports57c2,417$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.4166851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked Oxuji Esports52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9743951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bebop62c1,423$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.295,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cf…d259backed Oxuji Esports64c1,124$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Oxuji Esports35c985.71$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8455738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Bebop50c925.37$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.724,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Oxuji Esports16c862.16$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.191,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Bebop48c813.12$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.17250%36 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Bebop43c809.3$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.335745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Bebop48c802.34$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.2121146%97 W · 114 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Oxuji Esports28c752.69$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.332,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Oxuji Esports50c733.15$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3934559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bebop53c698.99$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.347,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Bebop47c670$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.355,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Oxuji Esports52c575.4$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Bebop78c533.31$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2627544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Oxuji Esports29c500.03$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.472,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Bebop46c498.62$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.2688242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Bebop54c474.7$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.392,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Bebop70c463.11$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.857447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Bebop48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6717146.2%79 W · 92 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Oxuji Esports36c394.64$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.852,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Oxuji Esports54c392.59$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21247447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Oxuji Esports19c378.83$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.686,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Bebop55c282.34$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.349140.7%37 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Oxuji Esports53c279.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3916550.3%83 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e99…0a26backed Bebop43c270$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.97643.4%33 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Bebop70c260$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.748635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Bebop53c259.83$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8354543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Oxuji Esports75c250$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.514650.7%74 W · 72 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Bebop49c240.51$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6840141.6%167 W · 234 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Oxuji Esports51c239.81$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4528455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7fb…c566backed Oxuji Esports53c234.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3870%0 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Bebop47c223.29$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.299247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Bebop48c210.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3373948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Oxuji Esports26c209.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.271,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Oxuji Esports49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.263,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Oxuji Esports76c196.49$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15044675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Bebop48c192.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0477351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Oxuji Esports52c192.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Bebop47c191.89$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.971,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Bebop46c181.2$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.61,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Oxuji Esports39c177.51$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.053,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Oxuji Esports56c177.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x257d…ecedbacked Bebop65c173.26$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Bebop41c172.51$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7914339.9%57 W · 86 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Bebop52c164.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4240639.4%160 W · 246 L-1.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Bebop54c162.96$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9637949.3%187 W · 192 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Bebop63c153.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8923038.3%88 W · 142 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ecb…52a5backed Bebop71c153$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.894257.1%24 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fb…1c4abacked Bebop61c152.48$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.337350.7%37 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed Bebop23c143.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.099736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Oxuji Esports23c140.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.934,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Oxuji Esports19c140.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6242427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe83…82a8backed Bebop66c136.3$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9710775.7%81 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Oxuji Esports54c135$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5278043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Oxuji Esports34c120.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.362,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf91e…dc10backed Bebop50c112.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.447354.8%40 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Bebop48c103.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.745645.2%206 W · 250 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Bebop75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Oxuji Esports20c94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0710…9335backed Oxuji Esports34c85.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2913127.5%36 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Oxuji Esports20c85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1788330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbecc…5672backed Oxuji Esports33c83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.013531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Oxuji Esports21c79.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.791,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Oxuji Esports29c74.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4152645.1%237 W · 289 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Oxuji Esports57c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4719762.9%124 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Bebop62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Bebop60c67.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0196543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Oxuji Esports36c65.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.422,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Bebop46c65.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6479951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0296…ad01backed Bebop77c64.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.684163.4%26 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Bebop54c63.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.540857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Bebop74c61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.972,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Oxuji Esports25c59.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8370042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed Bebop69c58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8452369.4%363 W · 160 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Oxuji Esports53c56.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023654.7%129 W · 107 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed Bebop38c54.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8415846.8%74 W · 84 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3d…51b8backed Bebop79c50.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.367247.2%34 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Oxuji Esports29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57735.1%27 W · 50 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Bebop47c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Oxuji Esports52c46.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3838037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd52a…dcebbacked Bebop45c44.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca8…7e67backed Oxuji Esports52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.812343.9%54 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5ea0backed Bebop78c39.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.749252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0153…bad3backed Bebop41c39.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.24055%22 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked Oxuji Esports51c37.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9814044.3%62 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f6…3f4ebacked Oxuji Esports65c36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Oxuji Esports68c34.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6662248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…e613backed Oxuji Esports72c34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Oxuji Esports52c31.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.158745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Oxuji Esports46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.930247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0529…44bbbacked Oxuji Esports54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519455.2%107 W · 87 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa099…b1d4backed Bebop74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.037159.2%42 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…0813backed Oxuji Esports54c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5820067%134 W · 66 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1988…0394backed Bebop76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.323259.4%19 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…93f1backed Bebop48c24.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7214250.7%72 W · 70 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b7…1929backed Bebop49c22.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.593053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e46…8c1cbacked Bebop48c22.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5423654.7%129 W · 107 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc841…3d09backed Bebop68c20.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.59966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.