NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424bdac3772e8765b0e4a6889a36f17b4ea7326c27e4e9832a226b0bfc3433d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 6,557$3,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475.44 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 6,426$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.01 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Over | 52c | 1,854$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.86 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 54c | 1,845$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 46c | 1,734$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.09 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 975.95$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.53 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 971$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 47c | 870.4$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.48 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 9c | 869$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 690.75$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 49c | 690.41$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.95 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 53c | 342.31$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 46c | 291.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 20c | 290$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 286.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 51c | 272.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 55c | 175$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 52c | 154.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 51c | 131$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 81.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 74.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 65.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Under | 48c | 48.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 47c | 33.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 33.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 54c | 26.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…a1dbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf6…801cbacked Over | 55c | 18.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5this page
- Bulls vs. TimberwolvesBulls won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.