NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6593c111aa9edf8bf505f61e16fdc7353ae6d31dcf69567677d437b51f1e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 53c | 46,983$24,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,859.7 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 13,414$6,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,069.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Under | 47c | 7,602$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.13 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Under | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.98 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 5,194$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,753.15 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 47c | 3,458$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.56 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 47c | 2,480$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.76 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 2,105$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 47c | 1,949$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.94 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 52c | 1,915$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 48c | 1,753$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.39 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,748$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,133$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.49 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…97f5backed Over | 49c | 1,037$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 977.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.12 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 915.09$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 613$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.63 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 53c | 479.1$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 472.45$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.68 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 49c | 389.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 378$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.34 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 339$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 130$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 48c | 125.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 78.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 47c | 28.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…902cbacked Over | 55c | 28.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 21.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5this page
- Bulls vs. TimberwolvesBulls won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.