NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330c6df84627067139a824421110386d915bacef627b3768762f22d371160f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Timberwolves, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Bulls | 47c | 150,000$70,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,499.98 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 110,000$58,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,300 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls | 47c | 71,679$33,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,769.32 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Timberwolves | 53c | 50,000$26,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,500 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 53c | 20,407$10,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,797.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Timberwolves | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves | 50c | 9,863$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.73 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 49c | 8,739$4,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,472.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Timberwolves | 53c | 7,839$4,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,154.41 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bulls | 50c | 6,327$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.71 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Timberwolves | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Timberwolves | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 4,811$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.52 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Timberwolves | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 53c | 3,719$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.23 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Timberwolves | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,670$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.4 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,064$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.28 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 47c | 1,031$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Timberwolves | 50c | 879.72$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.86 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls | 50c | 685$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bulls | 47c | 584$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.52 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Bulls | 48c | 545.9$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.83 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Timberwolves | 52c | 520$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…b14cbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Timberwolves | 53c | 495$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Timberwolves | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Timberwolves | 53c | 382.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.72 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Bulls | 47c | 348$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 48c | 335.73$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.03 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Bulls | 52c | 317.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Timberwolves | 53c | 306.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 48c | 222.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Timberwolves | 53c | 125.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…7061backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Bulls | 47c | 97.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 362 | 47.5%172 W · 190 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Bulls | 49c | 81.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Bulls | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves | 51c | 77.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 49c | 65.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Bulls | 47c | 65.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Timberwolves | 53c | 63.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Bulls | 47c | 62.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Timberwolves | 51c | 58.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls | 49c | 58.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Bulls | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Bulls | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Bulls | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bulls | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Timberwolves | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Bulls | 47c | 49.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Timberwolves | 62c | 46.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Bulls | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Timberwolves | 53c | 42.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Timberwolves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Bulls | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Timberwolves | 52c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Bulls | 48c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 478 | 52.9%253 W · 225 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Bulls | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Bulls vs. TimberwolvesBulls won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.