NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x903a67bc4a62e9358e2d63cf6c45feacd6673244ee0b39717f65b993ef18f934

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Timberwolves, Bulls
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $190,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $197,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,413 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66cc…7135backed Bulls	58c	52,299$30,569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,729.87	212	50.5%107 W · 105 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Bulls	56c	20,000$11,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,799.93	726	48.3%351 W · 375 L	+30.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Bulls	54c	16,348$8,828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,520.06	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Timberwolves	46c	12,995$5,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,977.89	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves	54c	10,016$5,392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,391.92	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Timberwolves	44c	8,772$3,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,859.62	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls	46c	5,494$2,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,963.47	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves	44c	4,881$2,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,124.55	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls	55c	4,353$2,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.02	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Bulls	59c	3,931$2,319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,612.22	346	54%187 W · 159 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves	46c	3,594$1,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,656.89	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves	42c	3,336$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Bulls	55c	2,469$1,358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.13	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls	54c	1,892$1,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$865.09	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves	42c	1,823$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.45	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Timberwolves	41c	1,526$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.66	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves	42c	1,442$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.92	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves	45c	1,200$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Timberwolves	43c	1,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-14.2wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Bulls	55c	883.64$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$397.64	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bulls	55c	775.13$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.81	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Bulls	56c	767.86$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.86	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves	44c	693.18$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.62	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves	44c	678.15$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.19	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x811e…8733backed Timberwolves	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Bulls	56c	476.89$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.83	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Timberwolves	45c	473.5$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.08	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Timberwolves	31c	469.79$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.63	228	36.4%83 W · 145 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves	42c	382.76$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.75	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Timberwolves	45c	365$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.7	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Bulls	56c	356.55$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.88	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Timberwolves	45c	333.33$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	169	45.6%77 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Timberwolves	42c	309.62$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.04	281	47.7%134 W · 147 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Timberwolves	45c	300.89$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.4	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Bulls	56c	300$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	236	30.1%71 W · 165 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Timberwolves	41c	300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Timberwolves	45c	286.67$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	143	46.2%66 W · 77 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Timberwolves	45c	258.48$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.93	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Timberwolves	47c	235$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.45	102	70.6%72 W · 30 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	63cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Timberwolves	41c	229$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.89	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Timberwolves	43c	227.25$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.81	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Bulls	69c	222$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.82	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Bulls	55c	218.18$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.18	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves	41c	205$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.05	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls	58c	201$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.42	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Bulls	56c	200.2$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.09	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Timberwolves	43c	182.21$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.63	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Bulls	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Bulls	56c	142.86$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.86	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Timberwolves	45c	117$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.65	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Timberwolves	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Bulls	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.83	193	50.3%97 W · 96 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Bulls	56c	105.48$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.41	362	47.5%172 W · 190 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Timberwolves	50c	84.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls	57c	80$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.4	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls	62c	74.39$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.6	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Timberwolves	52c	67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves	54c	63.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f1…04e9backed Bulls	56c	62.2$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.37	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Bulls	57c	58.46$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.14	243	63.8%155 W · 88 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Bulls	46c	54.58$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.42	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Bulls	21c	51.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.33	208	37.5%78 W · 130 L	+38.2wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Timberwolves	44c	51.16$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	307	43%132 W · 175 L	-19.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Timberwolves	46c	50.91$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.42	177	50.8%90 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Timberwolves	43c	48.32$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7cf…058dbacked Bulls	58c	48.09$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.2	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Timberwolves	45c	47.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	531	49.3%262 W · 269 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Timberwolves	43c	46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	390	41%160 W · 230 L	-32.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0435…cf1dbacked Bulls	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…80cbbacked Timberwolves	60c	40.53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a1…64a3backed Timberwolves	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-10.0wins	-0.27per pick	51cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Bulls	55c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x381d…818cbacked Timberwolves	79c	34.8$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.49	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.0wins	-0.33per pick	55cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Bulls	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	226	46.9%106 W · 120 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…1425backed Timberwolves	44c	31.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-8.5wins	-0.26per pick	50cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x4301…6fc0backed Bulls	56c	30.39$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.37	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-4.3wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Timberwolves	42c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	227	48.9%111 W · 116 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Bulls	56c	29.25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Timberwolves	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	163	54%88 W · 75 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Bulls	57c	22.81$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Bulls	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5ed…d157backed Bulls	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+38.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)this page
Bulls vs. TimberwolvesBulls won
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5Under won
Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Bulls won
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Bulls won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event