World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424fc6f13e9364668efc14fc28e97bd2ec5c5136ded208e90e2094430ad0e502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 1,109$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.96 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 818.3$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.34 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 31c | 526.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 524.56$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.08 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 511.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.27 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed No | 72c | 497.61$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.78 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 8c | 472.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 8c | 470.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 459.86$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.32 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 351.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 25c | 315.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.08 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 71c | 290$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 20c | 252.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 245.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 235.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 229.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 13c | 226.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.48 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 11c | 225.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 61c | 222.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 219.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 16c | 217.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 213.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 13c | 203.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 202.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 57c | 197.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 190.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 12c | 190.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.7 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 20c | 185.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 13c | 179.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 169.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 161.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 68c | 155.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 26c | 149.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 135.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7539backed Yes | 45c | 126.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…c70dbacked No | 80c | 125.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 120.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 17c | 119.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 105.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 103.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 103.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 102.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 102.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 24c | 99.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 31c | 95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 94.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 91.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 10cpaid | +389.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 90.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 75c | 88.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked No | 55c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 78.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 76.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 70.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 68.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 65.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 64.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 21c | 62.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 56.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 18c | 55.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 63c | 53.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 73c | 50.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 80c | 49.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 49.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 47.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 47.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 46.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 24c | 46.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 45.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 45.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 27c | 44.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 40c | 41.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 39.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 37.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 37.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +262.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 42c | 35.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 51c | 35.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.