World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4f97255b452cc48b3d08a39fde8b819211a0db815e275fd605309e995bdc2a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 2,165$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.07 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…53fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 732.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 707.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 25c | 683$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 571.46$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 402.3$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 5c | 370.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 339.02$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…c186backed Yes | 27c | 333.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 320.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 313$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed Yes | 35c | 289.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 28c | 256$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 7c | 240$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 194.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 178$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 13c | 177.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 16c | 163.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 21c | 162.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 159.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 158.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 157$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 154.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 130.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 128.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 120.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 118.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…574fbacked Yes | 15c | 117.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 111.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 110.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 109.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 38c | 104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 102.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 26c | 100.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 91.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 90.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 29c | 88.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 29c | 84.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 79.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 13c | 77.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 70.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 34c | 70.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 62c | 68.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 64.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 25c | 58.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 74c | 58.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 74c | 54.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 53.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…6e53backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 49.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 47.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed Yes | 26c | 46.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…09e7backed Yes | 33c | 43.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed Yes | 26c | 41.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 41.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 40.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed No | 67c | 37.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…eaaabacked Yes | 38c | 34.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 30.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 66c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 26.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1f…cfcdbacked No | 66c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.