World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c06729a1b7bdde713219f77d01de4b3faff380d54e8a6486bd10ea01c3401c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 1,017$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.47 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 38c | 945.38$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 645.24$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 609.34$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.87 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 297.8$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 287.55$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 37c | 277.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 266.43$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 254.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 234.15$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 57c | 222.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 222.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 211.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 208.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 34c | 198.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 179.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 177.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 35c | 175.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 174.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 159.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 158.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 154.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 140.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 133.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 117.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 115.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 45c | 113.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 112.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7539backed Yes | 51c | 97.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e7…e221backed Yes | 43c | 95.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 94.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 91.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 91.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 90.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 55c | 90.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…c186backed Yes | 36c | 89.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 34c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 81.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 36c | 81.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 62c | 80.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 68c | 77.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 70.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 39c | 69.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 64.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 64.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 61.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 60.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 59.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 57c | 58.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 58.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 41c | 58.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 58.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 70c | 57.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 57.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 43c | 55.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 53.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 52.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 39c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked Yes | 58c | 51.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 45c | 51.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 49.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 40c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 41c | 47.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 47.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 35c | 46.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 45.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 44.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 30c | 42.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 42.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 41.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 41.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 41.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 40.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 40.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 31c | 40.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…8058backed No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.