MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x427be0d4a3a4ddf2cb71d339df8f1a16b61d4723ca24229cbe5a2c1c81eaa0b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof New York Mets, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39eb…0e4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 742.12$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked New York Mets | 32c | 446.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed New York Mets | 37c | 417.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets | 36c | 341.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 254.59$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 175.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets | 44c | 156.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 149.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets | 36c | 129.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 34c | 127.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 122.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 79.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 67.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 66.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 61.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 36c | 57.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 53.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 37c | 49.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked New York Mets | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked New York Mets | 43c | 26.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 26.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc8…f392backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.