MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84355255438feacd3e194197f86dafdca8d6e92a11904577166fa026b8febb87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Under | 50c | 74,968$37,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,484.17 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Over | 50c | 70,136$35,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,068.05 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 11,106$5,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,558.17 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 6,999$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.25 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 50c | 5,820$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.68 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,643$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.74 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 3,880$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 50c | 3,449$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.7 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 54c | 1,946$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,865$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Under | 54c | 1,618$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.14 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…15fbbacked Over | 50c | 1,358$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 818.1$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.51 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 53c | 769$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.43 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 756.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 707.82$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.83 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 50c | 679$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Over | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 588.42$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 524.55$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.56 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 517.35$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 503.84$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 422.16$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 45c | 419.44$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.75 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 301.58$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 51c | 291.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 53c | 274.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 254.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 239.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 63c | 237.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Under | 52c | 228.33$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 54c | 216.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…e6a5backed Over | 48c | 199.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4e…916fbacked Over | 50c | 195.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 156.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 50c | 149.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 144.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 47c | 138.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 107.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 97.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 53c | 95.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…770dbacked Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Over | 50c | 93.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 92.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 24c | 86.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Under | 53c | 74.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 48c | 67.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 24c | 59.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 61c | 57.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…56aebacked Over | 37c | 54.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 20c | 51.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 68c | 45.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 45c | 44.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…f9d8backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 47c | 36.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 51c | 35.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…1a56backed Over | 50c | 32.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 51c | 30.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Under | 60c | 29.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.