MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b8c33176c82e6302d795876eb39800b3aa877582f2b96d3ae77cafc51e6381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 8,518$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.45 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 8,338$4,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,919.06 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 3,756$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.02 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 2,857$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.17 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 2,233$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 1,934$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.81 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 1,085$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.41 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 526.15$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Colorado Rockies | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 492.9$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 469.46$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 438$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 416.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 306.64$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 297.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 274$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 272$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 190.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 184.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 158.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 55.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 44.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Colorado Rockies | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 30.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…3531backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 22.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…31b2backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…e0eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dc…c425backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.