Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e95053ea4b4e3a8735f6c8cac76cc04cb556969d57b42650f5228b2291fdaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,445$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 2,330$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 74c | 1,389$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.66 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,009$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 883.63$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 691.55$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 26c | 473.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 26c | 391.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 391$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 346.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 308.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 5c | 300.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 293.24$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 30c | 172.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 172.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 139.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 136.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 74c | 124$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…3f05backed No | 74c | 121.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 27c | 109.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 27c | 108.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed Yes | 27c | 107.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 106.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 25c | 104.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 104.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 100.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…f7e6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 73c | 99.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 92.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed No | 77c | 87.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 86.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 79.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 27c | 72.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 79c | 61.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 61.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 57.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 30c | 56.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 56.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 55.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 26c | 54.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 20c | 49.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 47.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 42.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 41.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 78c | 40.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 40.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 37.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 79c | 36.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 36.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 78c | 35.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 35.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked No | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 78c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 73c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…7714backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 76c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 74c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 79c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…7e53backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 75c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.