Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b7d667d9c250a6453291eec44329b70a71999635035e31c6a5e2f048a1d0457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,612$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 923.97$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 727.18$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 31c | 725.54$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.92 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 63c | 627.84$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 36c | 554.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 486.53$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 35c | 421.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 376.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 338.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 314$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 310.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 309.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 307.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.47 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 54c | 305.11$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 297.92$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 293.24$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 52c | 288.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 6c | 283.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 268.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 233.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 222$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 214.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 186.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 58c | 174$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 172.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 41c | 165.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed No | 10c | 164.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 160.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 157.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 63c | 157.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 32c | 153.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 39c | 145.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 65c | 139.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 139.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 130.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 38c | 128.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 125.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 43c | 122.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 118$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 36c | 116$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 114$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 106.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 30c | 103.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 102.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 28c | 95.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 70c | 95.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 38c | 93.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 37c | 90.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…7e3abacked Yes | 70c | 89.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 38c | 89.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 86.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 57c | 82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 28c | 80.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 80.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 38c | 77.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 35c | 75.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 66c | 74.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 71.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 44c | 70.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 62.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 44c | 60.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 39c | 59.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 62c | 57.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 56.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 55.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 55.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 54.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 40c | 54.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 53.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 61c | 51.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 50.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 63c | 47.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 31c | 44.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 40.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 72c | 38.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.