Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45fc4cc16637bd29ef485fb8bdc09e323946aaa4d738ca6f2c8b9fa093a796f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,833$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.35 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,608$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.36 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,130$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 18c | 1,094$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.74 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 26c | 1,061$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.56 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 786.19$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 755.61$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 16c | 628.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 16c | 606.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 18c | 589.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 559.91$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 494.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 432.17$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 386.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 354.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 350.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 321$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 310.47$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 18c | 299.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 243.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 239$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 234.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 232.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 24c | 227.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 17c | 227.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 26c | 211.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 14c | 201.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 23c | 191.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 191$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 186.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 14c | 172.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 169$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 142.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 139.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 136.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 32c | 129.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 120.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 18c | 112.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 106.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 18c | 104.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 95.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 21c | 93.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 14c | 93.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 87.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 20c | 84.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 83.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 82.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 82.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 80.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 80.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 15c | 78.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 77.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 26c | 76.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 21c | 73.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 19c | 73.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 68c | 72.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 24c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 69.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 67.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 61.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8779…3eaabacked Yes | 27c | 61.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 19c | 52.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 48.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 23c | 44.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 42.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 72c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 40.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 73c | 36.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 78c | 30.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 26.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 22.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…7714backed No | 78c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 71c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 74c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.