Premier League · resolved market
Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432bc49df0704a41a8aba8ea1208db763061c13b42861f466be55bb4c2a6022e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,685 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 3,972$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.94 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Yes | 36c | 3,090$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed No | 3c | 944.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 50c | 677$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.5 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 45c | 611.96$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.73 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 10c | 599.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…5501backed No | 47c | 588.58$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…16c0backed Yes | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 45c | 499.71$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.84 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed No | 62c | 484.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 54c | 432$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.38 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 51c | 425.36$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 47c | 381.13$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.13 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…0af2backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…d3dabacked Yes | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 47c | 281.21$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 51c | 273.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.11 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked No | 10c | 258.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 45c | 220.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 211.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…0dc1backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 53c | 207.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…9827backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…0cf5backed Yes | 54c | 184.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6d…468dbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed No | 9c | 178.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…2020backed Yes | 55c | 178.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Yes | 29c | 177.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked No | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…54bdbacked Yes | 55c | 139.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 54c | 133.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 48c | 116.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 35c | 115.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 106.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 42c | 89.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Yes | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Yes | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 409 | 42.1%172 W · 237 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 46c | 78.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 52c | 75.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | +47.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…12debacked Yes | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 40c | 68.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 45c | 65.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…6ef3backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…a0abbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 317 | 46.1%146 W · 171 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked No | 30c | 42.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 51c | 38.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cb…79a4backed Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…5e45backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…e0b2backed Yes | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 33c | 34.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +17.2wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…9496backed No | 72c | 30.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…ebb0backed Yes | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 296 | 44.6%132 W · 164 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 41c | 27.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 417 | 60.2%251 W · 166 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 64c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…c115backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…1924backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Yes | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5)Fulham FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Fulham FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Burnley FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.