TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Nets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,627 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d39…6053backed Nets21c538.77$113 inLost-$112.642321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Nets2c500$10 inLost-$10462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors55c319.62$176 inWon+$143.894,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Warriors60c224.39$134 inWon+$9044654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets32c214.68$69 inLost-$68.955,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Warriors61c163.93$100 inWon+$63.9327161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Warriors73c136.99$100 inWon+$36.9918764.7%121 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Nets41c100$41 inLost-$40.9562848.7%306 W · 322 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors59c90$53 inWon+$36.91,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Nets37c61.24$23 inLost-$22.6619756.3%111 W · 86 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5514…72bdbacked Warriors63c61.24$39 inWon+$22.664264.3%27 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8095…97b6backed Nets43c60.47$26 inLost-$263432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd379…aa64backed Nets44c56.45$25 inLost-$251741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+66.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x084c…7544backed Warriors59c31.78$19 inWon+$13.039345.2%42 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked Nets41c31.71$13 inLost-$134447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.