NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ff588866dcf30893c72346aeec9a2a29c1afc97a23f1c4941da9600f9cde3e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 49c | 39,283$19,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,114.17 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 52c | 25,988$13,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,534.11 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,453$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 43c | 2,100$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 1,640$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.64 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 1,568$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.1 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.09 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 54c | 905.56$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.56 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 723$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 47c | 714.26$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.7 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 590.09$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 576.92$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 47c | 265.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 48c | 160.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 130.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a5…f761backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 47c | 77.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 47c | 68.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Under | 47c | 42.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 41.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…9dcebacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 47c | 30.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…1a46backed Under | 49c | 29.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…0e0bbacked Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…baf0backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 225.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. NetsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.