NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2553e5506c35629a61f296c10b4ddca7d6521142e945e0b203a863773a5ff1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Nets | 49c | 50,572$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 53c | 15,980$8,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,567.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Warriors | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Warriors | 49c | 6,955$3,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.43 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 52c | 5,484$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 42c | 4,646$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 51c | 4,121$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.05 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Warriors | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…ef00backed Warriors | 53c | 2,275$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Nets | 49c | 2,220$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Warriors | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Warriors | 51c | 1,759$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.91 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Warriors | 47c | 1,500$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 51c | 1,388$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.27 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 57c | 1,222$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.93 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 52c | 1,069$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Nets | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Nets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors | 59c | 890$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.9 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 51c | 811.15$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nets | 46c | 660.4$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Warriors | 57c | 655.98$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.07 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Warriors | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Warriors | 54c | 495.59$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.97 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nets | 47c | 466.73$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Warriors | 52c | 453.75$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets | 40c | 428.33$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 46c | 412.8$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Nets | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Nets | 48c | 361$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.51 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 46c | 305.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 58c | 236.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Warriors | 51c | 230.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Nets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Nets | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Nets | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Warriors | 52c | 124$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Warriors | 54c | 121.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Nets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Nets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Nets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Warriors | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Nets | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nets | 41c | 86.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nets | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nets | 45c | 76.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Nets | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Warriors | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Nets | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Warriors | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nets | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Warriors | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Warriors | 52c | 40.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Warriors | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb8…035fbacked Warriors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Warriors | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dff…7974backed Warriors | 54c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…e241backed Nets | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Nets | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Nets | 50c | 26.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Nets | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Warriors | 53c | 25.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Nets | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Warriors | 58c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. NetsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.