NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48a6a88c2b462c0bdd581a126b0e2e7d2d03061ec83b66279fccaf3d2ee3252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Nets | 73c | 23,377$16,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,953.18 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Warriors | 28c | 8,404$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,047.11 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 28c | 8,340$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,003.2 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 35c | 4,933$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,229.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Warriors | 34c | 2,388$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.84 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Warriors | 21c | 1,251$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.49 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Warriors | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Nets | 73c | 715.56$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nets | 66c | 660.61$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.49 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Warriors | 34c | 544.38$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 45c | 540.1$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.17 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 28c | 496.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.38 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…ee32backed Nets | 69c | 291.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nets | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Warriors | 33c | 160.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Nets | 69c | 145.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Warriors | 30c | 121$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Nets | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nets | 68c | 97.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Warriors | 31c | 96.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Nets | 54c | 87.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 46c | 87.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…822bbacked Nets | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Warriors | 39c | 74.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Nets | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Nets | 70c | 57.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nets | 72c | 55.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Warriors | 31c | 39.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 28c | 37.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…a528backed Nets | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Nets | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. NetsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.