NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3f7c9d22c1a641388c819aee75875e82fcb0ffc7d8610714ecde1108ec008d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 50c | 15,239$7,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,695.52 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 12,729$6,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,376.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Under | 50c | 5,799$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Over | 51c | 4,771$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.98 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 49c | 3,673$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bf12backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…60e7backed Under | 49c | 1,975$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 6c | 1,584$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Under | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 49c | 851.02$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 11c | 504.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Under | 51c | 490.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 52c | 390.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.38 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 384.71$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 379.52$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Under | 66c | 211.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 198.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe360…421cbacked Under | 60c | 148.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 132$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…6785backed Under | 58c | 108$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Over | 77c | 85.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 58.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 40.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 27.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…ee46backed Under | 51c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 226.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. NetsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.