Fifa International · resolved market
France vs. Spain: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439353837909ed331c8af442a91ef1b5094986641acb14237af8e806aac0c59e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 4,851$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.77 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Yes | 37c | 4,748$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.58 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…5c01backed No | 63c | 2,668$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.07 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,435$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.07 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 63c | 2,413$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.91 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 67c | 916.27$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.37 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…5280backed Yes | 33c | 872.73$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaf…8ae7backed Yes | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 8c | 754$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 614.05$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…b216backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd4…1fabbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 10.1%10 W · 89 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6d…33e2backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 24c | 575.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 510.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 12c | 501$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Yes | 5c | 495.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…564dbacked Yes | 23c | 421.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 66c | 327.11$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe623…9800backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 273.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 74c | 261.89$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd511…aa30backed Yes | 28c | 179.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…aa02backed Yes | 38c | 143.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 94 | 38.3%36 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 18c | 132$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…1ddabacked Yes | 27c | 129.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…6becbacked Yes | 13c | 128.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 245 | 40.4%99 W · 146 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d80…7fa5backed Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 63c | 84.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…3e12backed Yes | 37c | 51.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2410…c0cdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 46.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd252…1874backed Yes | 33c | 43.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 62c | 34.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 63c | 29.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 512 | 28.9%148 W · 364 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 64c | 29.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 62c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- France vs. Spain: Second half draw?this page
- France to win the second half?No won
- Spain to win the second half?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.