Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4393c848857978e85dcf4251fb0243df4fc04e9468b2a650965478eeb66883cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 429.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 366.65$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 4c | 269.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 44c | 252.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 33c | 250.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 228.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 29c | 214.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 75c | 211.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 206.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 178.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 155.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 49c | 136.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 70c | 125.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 110.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 69c | 108.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 101.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 98.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 11c | 96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 95.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 60c | 92.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 87.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 19c | 85.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 46c | 84.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 82.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 75c | 78.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 75.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 68.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 66.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 53c | 61.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 27c | 55.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 54.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 53.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 49.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 49.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 46.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 42.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 55c | 42.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 62c | 40.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 38.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 37.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 60c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 35.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 50c | 34.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 44c | 34.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 33.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 47c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 31.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 45c | 29.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 29.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 29.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 53c | 28.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 77c | 22.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 54c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 53c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 58c | 18.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 66c | 17.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.