Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07794fc89b0aafec27a04d989eb4f02aff574dccf8831cd21794230c9b1f1351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 17c | 444.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 298.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 276.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 267.79$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 249.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 25c | 239.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 235.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 203.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 180.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 155.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 131.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 129.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 13c | 127.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 80.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 77.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 72.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 67.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 65.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 40c | 50.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 49.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 60c | 47.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked No | 78c | 47.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 47.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 42.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 36c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 39.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 33.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 62c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 31.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 65c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 28.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 38c | 26.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 25.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 24.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 67c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 19.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 64c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.