Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439c23093cfb573712930f2fdd76395116826b6852fd01d5e77ab5bb7746e069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x681d…3fa1backed No | 0c | 20,384$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 9,622$7,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,135 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 8,508$2,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,110$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 11c | 1,556$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,238$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.34 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…da18backed No | 73c | 1,102$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 73c | 982.44$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.18 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 850.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.21 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 655$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.15 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 605.14$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.92 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…d91cbacked No | 26c | 500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 470.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.24 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Yes | 37c | 381$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.51 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Yes | 27c | 363.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 30c | 353.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.9 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 6c | 260.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 63c | 254$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 243.57$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 21c | 239.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 28c | 229$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 63c | 215$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 25c | 201.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…80f9backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e85…81cdbacked No | 73c | 158.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…29c7backed No | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed No | 72c | 113$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 24c | 111.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 26c | 109.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 28c | 89.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 73c | 88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 22c | 69.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 68.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 74c | 67.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 27c | 59.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 74c | 55.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 74c | 53.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 33c | 53.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 74c | 53.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 28c | 51.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Yes | 28c | 43.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…5e5fbacked Yes | 27c | 42.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Yes | 25c | 42.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 28c | 36.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 38c | 32.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 73c | 32.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 30.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 62c | 28.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…b290backed No | 72c | 23.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked No | 74c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed No | 74c | 18.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…b307backed No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-01-31?No won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.