Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b9127e04bcbe5b4639944232eeafc8119b9b6e01a83c5610acdeec09a0d109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 3c | 815.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 17c | 524.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 368.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 337.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 35c | 324.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 257.39$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 246.05$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 244.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 225$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 182.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 176.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 162.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…0694backed Yes | 45c | 106.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 98.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 80.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 74.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 71.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 71.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…65c0backed Yes | 70c | 71.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 16c | 70.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 77c | 68.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 67.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 59.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 58.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 54.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 25c | 52.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 50.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 68c | 44.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 43.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 37.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 35.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 61c | 34.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 33.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 78c | 30.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 30.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 76c | 22.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 21.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 71c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 74c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 18.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 73c | 17.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.