Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc26b1891ae152ec483e1ffc8844dc4243a2f55306f84688fa795cd2653b3017a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ff4…6cc4backed Yes | 35c | 2,238$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,975$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.77 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 67c | 994.26$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.63 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 916.79$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 528.73$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 456.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 375.49$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 309$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 271.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.87 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 236.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 235$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 207.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 207$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 195.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 138.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 135$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 134.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 68c | 125.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 117.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 35c | 100.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 100.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 90.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 89.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 83.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 79.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 79.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 27c | 73.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 70.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 63.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 24c | 53.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 53.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 34c | 46.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 42.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 39.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 33c | 35.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed No | 72c | 31.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 27.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 73c | 21.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 73c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…b7aabacked No | 72c | 20.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 73c | 17.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed No | 71c | 15.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.