TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Jaqueline Cristian
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Jaqueline Cristian4c37,751$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.98,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Jaqueline Cristian2c19,294$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.671,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Jaqueline Cristian4c14,285$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.6718315.8%29 W · 154 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfb…84a6backed Jaqueline Cristian7c11,100$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.4612814.1%18 W · 110 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Jaqueline Cristian2c10,373$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7662140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jaqueline Cristian5c5,865$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2395140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0239…6e89backed Jaqueline Cristian5c3,509$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.711130.6%34 W · 77 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Jaqueline Cristian5c3,236$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.876,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Jaqueline Cristian5c2,699$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.962,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed Jaqueline Cristian6c2,370$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.27320.5%15 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed Jaqueline Cristian6c2,257$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.22814.3%4 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Jaqueline Cristian7c2,231$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9754138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a5…4dd9backed Jaqueline Cristian10c2,027$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Jaqueline Cristian5c1,885$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6723731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Jaqueline Cristian8c1,811$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2437421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Jaqueline Cristian6c1,774$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4257321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Jaqueline Cristian4c1,574$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9527846%128 W · 150 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Jaqueline Cristian3c1,542$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3518932.3%61 W · 128 L+0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid+496.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38d…18cebacked Jaqueline Cristian8c1,529$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.072240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Jaqueline Cristian3c1,487$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4228933.2%96 W · 193 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb32d…c4b8backed Jaqueline Cristian5c1,400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Jaqueline Cristian5c1,246$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.291,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa101…001dbacked Jaqueline Cristian1c1,154$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.052969%20 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Jaqueline Cristian5c1,037$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8727739%108 W · 169 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jaqueline Cristian5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35a7…c4eebacked Jaqueline Cristian7c992.76$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9820338.4%78 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Jaqueline Cristian3c899.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82262.2%5 W · 221 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jaqueline Cristian5c869.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.477,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Jaqueline Cristian3c770.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1122113.6%30 W · 191 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Jaqueline Cristian5c640.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3748214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Jaqueline Cristian5c627.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.241,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Jaqueline Cristian5c565.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.291,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Jaqueline Cristian7c549.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8230226.8%81 W · 221 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa39…e4afbacked Jaqueline Cristian6c494.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.692714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Jaqueline Cristian5c447.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3997745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Jaqueline Cristian9c386.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Jaqueline Cristian5c332.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6556827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Jaqueline Cristian5c251.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.551,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Jaqueline Cristian5c246.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Jaqueline Cristian5c243.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Jaqueline Cristian6c235.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1542332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Jaqueline Cristian6c209.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.