Tennis · resolved market
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43c06af2f1e9cc6f2203adc9a52930d28f27d59cc74395a73da3dcc44f049848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Jaqueline Cristian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 37,751$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.9 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Jaqueline Cristian | 2c | 19,294$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.67 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 14,285$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.67 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…84a6backed Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 11,100$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.46 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 2c | 10,373$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 621 | 40.7%253 W · 368 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 5,865$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.23 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…6e89backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 3,509$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 3,236$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 2,699$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…eb16backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 2,370$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 2,257$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 2,231$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…4dd9backed Jaqueline Cristian | 10c | 2,027$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 1,885$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Jaqueline Cristian | 8c | 1,811$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 1,774$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 1,574$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 278 | 46%128 W · 150 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 1,542$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 189 | 32.3%61 W · 128 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +496.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…18cebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 8c | 1,529$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 1,487$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…c4b8backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 1,246$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…001dbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 1c | 1,154$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 1,037$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 277 | 39%108 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 992.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…98b1backed Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 899.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 226 | 2.2%5 W · 221 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 869.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 770.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 221 | 13.6%30 W · 191 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 640.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 627.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 565.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 549.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…e4afbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 494.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 447.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 9c | 386.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 332.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 251.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,077 | 52.4%564 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 246.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 243.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 235.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 209.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristianthis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jaqueline Cristian: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.