Lol · resolved market
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d01c2cd0343a681a1c094ed7efdf869dc86212bba1fb809c3993b8e8f6a127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Esportsof Shifters, G2 Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Shifters | 1c | 43,483$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 993 | 38.6%383 W · 610 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Shifters | 0c | 37,839$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 377 | 5.6%21 W · 356 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5e…13bebacked Shifters | 11c | 10,539$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.34 | 495 | 41.6%206 W · 289 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Shifters | 12c | 7,163$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.51 | 313 | 28.8%90 W · 223 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Shifters | 12c | 6,395$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.68 | 360 | 34.4%124 W · 236 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Shifters | 10c | 5,797$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.58 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked Shifters | 1c | 5,685$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 158 | 21.5%34 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…4653backed Shifters | 11c | 5,150$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.48 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Shifters | 12c | 5,001$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.15 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…c54abacked Shifters | 12c | 3,579$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d86…a6f9backed Shifters | 12c | 2,677$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.25 | 274 | 32.5%89 W · 185 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Shifters | 11c | 2,544$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.57 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6f16backed Shifters | 12c | 2,163$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.61 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -11.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Shifters | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 840 | 50.1%421 W · 419 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Shifters | 12c | 1,965$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.02 | 679 | 31.8%216 W · 463 L | -31.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Shifters | 10c | 1,685$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.48 | 675 | 49%331 W · 344 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…f2fdbacked Shifters | 12c | 1,300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Shifters | 10c | 1,288$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 962 | 50.1%482 W · 480 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Shifters | 12c | 745$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 376 | 47.9%180 W · 196 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Shifters | 7c | 663.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…f204backed Shifters | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Shifters | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 401 | 45.4%182 W · 219 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…64ccbacked Shifters | 12c | 499.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 174 | 31%54 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Shifters | 4c | 477.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…b0dabacked Shifters | 12c | 473.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf7…e64cbacked Shifters | 11c | 430.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 242 | 27.7%67 W · 175 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…a754backed Shifters | 12c | 402.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…511dbacked Shifters | 8c | 254.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Shifters | 5c | 201.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 348 | 34.2%119 W · 229 L | -39.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…46aebacked Shifters | 8c | 198.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Shifters | 12c | 161.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Shifters | 12c | 154.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 181 | 21%38 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Shifters | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 573 | 33%189 W · 384 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Shifters | 12c | 104.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 760 | 28.9%220 W · 540 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Shifters | 11c | 102.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 438 | 37.9%166 W · 272 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Shifters | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f74…4fccbacked Shifters | 14c | 97.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…8318backed Shifters | 12c | 94.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonthis page
- First Blood in Game 1?G2 Esports won
- First Blood in Game 2?G2 Esports won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)G2 Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports - Game 2 WinnerG2 Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.