Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b68bbff8fcf8ea06930014fa306157ffaeeb91d34d6aadf6a6b93b822a29ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x920a…29e0backed OG | 69c | 2,243$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.95 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Inner Circle | 19c | 1,998$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Inner Circle | 30c | 1,309$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.76 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Inner Circle | 27c | 999.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…67bcbacked OG | 70c | 630.57$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Inner Circle | 30c | 606.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed OG | 70c | 570.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 135 | 51.9%70 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Inner Circle | 33c | 550$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Inner Circle | 13c | 453.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed OG | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…cb74backed Inner Circle | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed OG | 74c | 336.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6233backed OG | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Inner Circle | 31c | 293.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle | 26c | 269.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Inner Circle | 33c | 258.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked OG | 67c | 253.91$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Inner Circle | 30c | 231.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Inner Circle | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked OG | 70c | 196$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Inner Circle | 34c | 189.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Inner Circle | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Inner Circle | 32c | 135.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed Inner Circle | 32c | 131.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Inner Circle | 16c | 119.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…3bbfbacked Inner Circle | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…5476backed OG | 72c | 109.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…26d7backed OG | 72c | 108.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked OG | 69c | 107.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…c22bbacked Inner Circle | 22c | 107.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked OG | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed OG | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Inner Circle | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…b51cbacked Inner Circle | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked OG | 68c | 56.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed OG | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Inner Circle | 27c | 49.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Inner Circle | 33c | 37.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Inner Circle | 31c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed OG | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed OG | 66c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed OG | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed OG | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Dthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerOG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.