TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, Inner Circle
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$288,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked OG72c28,220$20,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,949.8417452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Inner Circle28c19,546$5,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,516.8828159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG75c14,681$11,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.441,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Inner Circle36c13,653$4,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,925.5571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed OG66c7,273$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.0230667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Inner Circle42c7,082$2,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.335062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Inner Circle28c6,990$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.8641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Inner Circle30c6,352$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.052931%9 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-40.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed OG70c6,031$4,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.0433453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Inner Circle29c5,375$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.0571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked OG61c5,350$3,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.263652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed OG61c5,223$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.2696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked OG59c5,101$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.3653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked OG72c4,493$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.4379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Inner Circle25c4,400$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked Inner Circle6c4,206$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.318538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Inner Circle1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed OG78c2,849$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.7245352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Inner Circle21c2,832$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.8145750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Inner Circle28c2,801$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.415438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Inner Circle27c2,780$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.8526540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Inner Circle28c2,742$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.5731936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Inner Circle35c2,536$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe504…72e7backed Inner Circle20c2,409$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.412751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed OG71c2,077$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.8162650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Inner Circle26c2,027$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.0225935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Inner Circle21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed Inner Circle27c2,000$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5418958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Inner Circle30c2,000$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Inner Circle15c1,976$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8150353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle18c1,807$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.422,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Inner Circle13c1,750$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc065…00e2backed OG76c1,600$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.473759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Inner Circle28c1,585$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Inner Circle30c1,550$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46529143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed OG62c1,468$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.161,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Inner Circle30c1,456$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.0612136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Inner Circle17c1,380$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23530356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed Inner Circle28c1,377$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3906527.7%18 W · 47 L-9.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Inner Circle24c1,331$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.4695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed OG69c1,296$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.656852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Inner Circle17c1,156$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Inner Circle29c1,143$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.566848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Inner Circle31c1,089$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.198657%49 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Inner Circle40c1,080$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.8791553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Inner Circle43c1,077$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9136343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked OG64c1,038$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.8350347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked Inner Circle8c1,028$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.056645.5%30 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed OG75c1,008$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.0514557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Inner Circle32c1,005$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.771,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed OG60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Inner Circle25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25088539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed OG66c971$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1415639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle26c957.62$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle18c932.25$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.581,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Inner Circle18c898$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2929047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Inner Circle29c859$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1135737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Inner Circle27c825.06$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7760349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed Inner Circle43c790.7$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34014751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf93…0d84backed OG64c767.24$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.247553.3%40 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked OG72c750$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked OG56c725.48$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.2150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed OG73c712.33$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.3320949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed OG57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.751,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked OG72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19627060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Inner Circle22c700$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Inner Circle42c650.33$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27248057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle5c631.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked OG70c629.81$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9432548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Inner Circle28c616.86$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17016256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed OG61c597.65$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1121158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked OG71c590.63$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.2831055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Inner Circle42c575.98$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9128549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Inner Circle30c566.02$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.764025%10 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle8c523.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.221,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed OG74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1307263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Inner Circle30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Inner Circle44c477$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8828650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked Inner Circle30c470.64$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.017728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Inner Circle34c469$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.466744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Inner Circle39c445$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0847548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed Inner Circle42c444.79$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.816741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed OG74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4122663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed OG65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14053758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8627…cb74backed Inner Circle25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003868.4%26 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked OG69c389.87$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.265752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ec…2711backed Inner Circle41c382.3$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.510039%39 W · 61 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x749f…6be1backed Inner Circle32c375$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked OG72c370.9$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.315358.8%90 W · 63 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf034…3a70backed Inner Circle27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008854.5%48 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked OG75c364.36$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0944149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Inner Circle40c352.5$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.613145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed OG57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8820642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed OG71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.545457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Inner Circle18c330.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3189238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x056e…cd80backed Inner Circle27c323.63$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.384151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Inner Circle28c305.75$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8655457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Inner Circle44c300$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.533265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked Inner Circle10c287.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…a02abacked OG74c270$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.213658.1%79 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.