Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44c504577620805fc0d23d4042dd602e5eabbd3f67d7cce381ecf9962a5af3a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 1,398$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 34c | 540.42$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 320$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 312.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 270.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 270.55$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 262.3$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 21c | 247.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 232.17$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 175.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 33c | 175.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 137.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 112.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 26c | 104.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 100.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 100.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 99.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 60c | 95.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 78.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 30c | 73.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 66.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 21c | 64.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 62.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 48c | 57.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 70c | 56.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 54.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 51.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 51.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 48.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 45.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 68c | 44.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 43.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 40.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 39.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 39.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 38.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 38.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 68c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 58c | 32.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked No | 74c | 31.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 29.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 27.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 70c | 27.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 27.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 27.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 61c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…da27backed No | 71c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db0…6ac5backed No | 57c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 20.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…27dabacked No | 49c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.