TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,381 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes41c2,022$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.811,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c916.13$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.272,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No62c449.17$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5617858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c252$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.682,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No59c243.6$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No59c236.39$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.131,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No20c203.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8917658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c188.3$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes37c184.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.34,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c180.96$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes41c180$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes42c174.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.713,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes42c174.9$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes46c169$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.761,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes47c165.54$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0921264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c164.58$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c156.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.882,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No59c148.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3815553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c147.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.475,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c138.32$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.824,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes44c132.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.592,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No60c126$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.61,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes39c124.29$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.24,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.85641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No59c119.74$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.891,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No58c103.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c101$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc388…ed37backed Yes45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes38c96.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes76c86.45$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.796,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c82.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.931,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c78.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.577,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No59c75.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No60c71.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.613444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a96…286bbacked Yes57c68.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.442437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c67.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.051,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes39c62.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3687437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No64c61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7964167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No60c60.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4971649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c57.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.484,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No35c55.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes79c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes52c53.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No57c52.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6817633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes46c51.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.891,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No60c49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed Yes68c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.984555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb430…efc9backed Yes41c43.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.618231.7%26 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No62c40.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes43c39.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6315449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c39.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.749,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No55c39.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7535264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes40c37.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8459144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No54c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b1…00b2backed No64c35.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.511877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.487,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No64c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6928360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No63c30.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2629769.4%206 W · 91 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No60c30.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3724546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39be…aac9backed Yes67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f70…133ebacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94161%25 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No45c28.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes41c28.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9926441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No59c27.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3242754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No54c27.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0417165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No53c25.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.353,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Yes42c25.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.654045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1433654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.011,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes72c22.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.210246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No59c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9826067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No55c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a53…1ee8backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.418337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.