South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4563c9c99f1739b3bba4b37979a486071e16396ce95317243f3c9976c31cb234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 6,461$5,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.44 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 29c | 6,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.94 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 22c | 4,121$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.46 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 26c | 3,500$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 20c | 2,072$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.31 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 74c | 1,714$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.49 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 72c | 1,543$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.55 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 1,541$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.87 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 75c | 972$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 27c | 525.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 74c | 506$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 79c | 326.29$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 76c | 236.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 74c | 211.29$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 197$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 10c | 195.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 74c | 153.12$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 78c | 147.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Over | 26c | 123.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 75c | 117.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…3b3fbacked Under | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 71c | 69.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 74c | 44.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 79c | 43.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 71c | 34.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 72c | 31.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 72c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…d91bbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 78c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: CA Tigre O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-2.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.