Champions League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4587438e3b68291dc1563f8e4ce4a0f664af4fc917fa19fa77488b17dc9f0d41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Crvena zvezdaof FK Crvena zvezda, Larne FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Larne FC | 2c | 3,231$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +217%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Larne FC | 2c | 3,057$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Larne FC | 1c | 2,023$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Larne FC | 2c | 965.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…0f4cbacked Larne FC | 2c | 772.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…6116backed Larne FC | 3c | 760.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +562%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Larne FC | 2c | 681$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +254.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…980bbacked Larne FC | 7c | 660.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Larne FC | 2c | 503$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +496.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to Advancethis page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.