Champions League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90e402c2e129ec94d3f45b9c53fb89088996fa442dd57475a47cc351c7fc4a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Under | 5c | 24,516$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 9,160$4,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,580 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 42c | 3,135$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.88 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a1…30d1backed Over | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.31 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 6c | 1,026$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.95 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 671.71$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.3 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 31c | 659$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Under | 6c | 491.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +388.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…0dc0backed Under | 43c | 470.08$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 53c | 366.75$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 61c | 313.69$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 312.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 70c | 208.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Under | 15c | 187.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…0fc3backed Under | 23c | 167.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 45c | 159.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 10c | 141.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 63c | 129$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 58c | 83.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Under | 17c | 81.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 50c | 69.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…b275backed Under | 21c | 63.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 38c | 58.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 80c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 54c | 26.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to AdvanceFK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.